Monday, March 24, 2008

A New World Order?


There's been a lot of talk about the recession of U.S. economy of late...and that of a new Political scenario worldwide...To what extent do the two hold their ground in reality is debatable but that it is happening...is not.A weakening U.S. dollar and strengthening of other currencies pegged against it is seen, as the garangutan consumer faces challenges from across the globe...globalisation and hence cheaper and economical means being the reason...Alongside stands its Sub-Prime mortgage crisis which potentially broke down bull's back in all economies of scale..an example is the engulfment of Bears Stearns by JP Morgan Chase...former being a strong player and a strong contender in good times sold at a meagre 240 mn$...General Motors which showed more profits than Exxon, the oil major, in the 80's(!) suffered huge monetary blows and lost the no. 1 spot to Japanese major Toyota recently...Moving Eastwards the Euro is Strong but they face a major energy crisis and who's come to the rescue??the former Communists, Russia of course....With huge Gas reserves and a promising gas pipeline linking Europe...no guesses over who's going to call the shots in future...and the Russians are getting active again, politically,more importantly..threatening U.S. of recognising Ossetia and another state if Kosovo meets Western acceptance and also gave huge blows to US after talk of setting up missile set ups on the backdoor of the emerging mammoth...and the Roulbe's growing strong too....leave INDIA out and add the dragon to the scenario and you get the new big picture...Russia and China setting up SCO(Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) and the Russia centric CSTO(tends to be NATO of the east with time)...With a booming Economy and an active political set up (minus the collision course stubbornness of the US), China has the potential to make it to the top..Russia has evrything already,thanks to Putin and his successor Medvedev...having said that, the Europeans are now struggling on 2 weak legs -- one of energy crisis and the other of breaking up of new countries (non- togetherness, as one can put it) and is slowly standing up to it...Africa stands in its AIDS, crime, civil war and poverty driven BUT energy rich resources(luring US and China etc. as future suppliers, with latter having better stands ,politically)...But my take would be...don't count the Americans out ...they still have hidden cards in the form of Fed Bank's control of Dollar and a strong CIA...just a matter of an year when the govt. changes...so may the political see-saw...but amidst all this speculation...one thing's for sure...US economy is much weaker than it was a decade or two ago...and the east is now stronger than ever before..and there's a shift in all senses( power,economic, political etc.)..and the shift is VISIBLE...so don't shake ur head if trading starts in Euro but the Russians rule the roost (or in Rouble itself!)..or the Chinese dictate the east by their financial muscle and low tone voice...Wait and watch .....Phoenix is back from ashes...